Hansun, Seng and Charles, Vincent and Gherman, Tatiana (2021) Hull-WEMA: A Novel Zero-Lag Approach in the Moving Averages Family, with an Application to COVID-19. International Journal of Management and Decision Making.
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
The Moving Average (MA) is undeniably one of the most popular forecasting methods in time series analysis. In this study, we consider two variants of MA, namely the Weighted Exponential Moving Average (WEMA) and the Hull Moving Average (HMA). WEMA, which was introduced in 2013, has been widely used in different scenarios but still suffers from lags. To address this shortcoming, we propose a novel zero-lag Hull-WEMA method that combines HMA and WEMA. We apply and compare the proposed approach with HMA and WEMA by using COVID-19 time series data from ten different countries with the highest number of cases on the last observed date. Results show that the new approach achieves a better accuracy level than HMA and WEMA. Overall, the paper advocates a white-box forecasting method, which can be used to predict the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the short run more accurately.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | 000 Computer Science, Information and General Works > 000 Computer Science, Knowledge and Systems > 005 Computer Programming |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Engineering & Informatics > Informatics |
| Depositing User: | Administrator UMN Library |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Oct 2021 01:42 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Oct 2021 01:42 |
| URI: | https://kc.umn.ac.id/id/eprint/18896 |
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