Kristanda, Marcel Bonar and Hansun, Seng (2019) Forecasting Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Bali: Hybrid Double Exponential Smoothing Approach. International Journal of Engineering Research and Technology, 12 (11). ISSN 0974-3154
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
Bali is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the world. With its magnificent nature and enchanting culture, it has attracted many people to come and visit every year. The need to have a proper and accurate tourist flow prediction has become important since it could be a scientific reference for decision making process for the development of tourism sectors in Bali province. In this research, we try to forecast the foreign tourist arrivals to Bali by using its monthly distribution data recorded from January 2008 to December 2018. Two hybrid double exponential smoothing methods, i.e. B-WEMA and H-WEMA, were successfully implemented and could predict the future foreign tourist arrivals number. B-WEMA excels H-WEMA in terms of accuracy level which was calculated using MSE and MAPE error measurements. Furthermore, the prediction of foreign tourist arrivals to Bali province for 2019 was given which showed a slight increase compare to the number of foreign tourist arrivals in 2018.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | 000 Computer Science, Information and General Works > 000 Computer Science, Knowledge and Systems |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Engineering & Informatics > Informatics |
| Depositing User: | Administrator UMN Library |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Oct 2021 03:12 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Oct 2021 03:12 |
| URI: | https://kc.umn.ac.id/id/eprint/18933 |
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